What to Expect in the eReading Market for 2015: Trends and Predictions

The year 2015 is already a good two weeks old, and the first electronics trade show (CES) has already ended. It’s the right time to take a look into the future.

What will this year bring for the digital reading market? Can we expect new technologies? Which eReaders will come and go? What developments are anticipated for the German digital market?

One thing that stood out at CES 2015 this year was the lack of standout highlights in the mobile computing sector – meaning smartphones, tablets, and of course eReaders. Dedicated reading devices don’t hold a particularly high standing at CES anyway – especially since growth potential for Amazon’s competition in the US market has become limited – but at least interesting display technologies are usually introduced or showcased.

This year, there was no such offering. Neither E Ink, Qualcomm (Mirasol), nor any other company brought along power-saving display technologies. E Ink Holdings only ceased with a “dynamic” wall named Prism, underscoring once again that the company is still searching for alternative applications and income sources for electrophoretic displays.

Will 2015 remain without tech surprises?

There were thus no special new mobile applications, which allows some conclusions about what can be expected in the eBook reader market over the next few months. It’s likely that there won’t be any special technical changes to the line-ups from various manufacturers this year, at least not from a technical standpoint. Anything that will be introduced probably existed elsewhere before. E-Ink Carta will continue to gain market share, while Pearl technology may become somewhat less important.

It remains to be seen whether Amazon will bring the Liquavista technology to market this year. Amazon acquired the display specialist two years ago, though there was no further comment on when and in what form the display technology would be applied.

New display technologies are scarce. The Mirasol technology shown in the picture from Qualcomm has been struggling for market entry for years and has only been used in two consumer products so far

The new introductions in the tablet sector were equally unspectacular. While there was a veritable boom of flat computers at CES 2013 two years ago, the picture looked a little different the following year and has continued to develop this way this year. Tablets are “fully” developed. Jumps in display resolution and case size (or thickness) are no longer expected, and even the currently over a year old chipsets are more than fast enough for current games and demanding apps. This situation is also reflected in the market development. Various analysts have already predicted a particularly abrupt cooling phase for the tablet market, which ultimately has been confirmed by the declining sales figures, also confirmed by the drop in Apple iPad sales.

Are Flatrates on the rise or decline?

Hardware-wise, not much is expected to change this year at first glance. How does the content side look?

In the USA, various providers have been offering eBook flatrates for a while, and Amazon entered the eBook flat-rate market in 2014. Kindle Unlimited is expected to complement the digital book offerings of the retail giant. It’s unclear how successful the eBook flat-rate is. On one hand, the book offerings consist almost exclusively of independent authors and include few well-known publisher titles, on the other hand, many indie authors have already expressed their dissatisfaction with decreased sales and low remuneration for borrowed eBooks. In the end, some authors say they are earning significantly less with the flat-rate program than before.

To the delight of customers, Amazon sold the eBook flatrate in a eReader bundle in the USA—now the retail giant needs to work on satisfying the authors as well

If this proves to be the case for the majority of self-publishers, Amazon will need to take action and revise the business model, otherwise the most popular and successful indie authors might soon leave the lending program, further decreasing its appeal.

How is the eBook market developing?

The further development of the German digital market remains difficult to estimate. In the past, eBooks were forecasted for rapid growth until the year 2020, which had already noticeably slowed last year.

This is also reflected in the sales figures of dedicated reading devices. The circumstance of slower growth in eReader sales is seen as an indication that on one hand, eBook growth is coming to a halt, and on the other hand, tablets are claiming a large piece of the digital reading market for themselves. However, as already mentioned, tablet sales also show signs of weakening, so this assumption might only hold true to a limited extent.

At the same time though, it must be noted that although growth has slowed, the absolute number of eBook readers sold in 2014 was still higher than in any previous year. For avid readers, there are still no alternatives to the handy and always easily readable E-Ink reading device.

If the prediction of further flattening growth in eBook reader sales in 2015 or 2016 takes shape, the chances are good that the shares in the German eBook market will only change slowly from now on. Even slower than they already have. A few weeks ago, I took another look at the market development after Tolino partners announced that they had overtaken Amazon. A look back to the year 2012, however, reveals that market shares have barely shifted since then, despite Tolino’s market entry. A key reason for this might be that the majority of existing customers simply stick with the reading device of their respective provider and particularly the switch from Kindle customers rarely occurs.

And with the individual manufacturers?

In conclusion, let’s pull out the crystal ball and speculate on what individual manufacturers might bring to the market this year.

For Amazon, I don’t expect any significant changes to their device line-up. The basic Kindle will remain unchanged in the program, as well as the bestseller Kindle Paperwhite. The Kindle Voyage is likely to be revamped, including fixing the issues that made it difficult for the device to launch during last Christmas’s sales. Whether a device with Liquavista Display will appear remains to be seen. If so, it’s also possible that this could take place in the tablet line-up.

The Voyage is currently struggling with quality issues. With the next generation, these issues are expected to be resolved

Since the launch of the Tolino range, there has been a new device introduced every six months. It will be interesting to see if this rhythm is maintained. It is conceivable that the Tolino Shine will get a successor. That will probably also depend on the intended pricing policy because while the Shine, thanks to older hardware, could be significantly reduced in price without loss (from an original 99 euros to 77 euros), the situation with the Vision 2 was different. The market launch of the water-protected eReader was disrupted by the price reduction of the Paperwhite, something they probably don’t want to happen again. It will also be interesting to see if the software will be further developed because, in the original promise of ongoing firmware updates, much has not been lived up to, and in comparison to Amazon, Kobo, and PocketBook, the Tolino software still has the least features. Introduction: September/October

The Vision 2 performs well in tests, but the software could still benefit from expansion

Kobo has undoubtedly scored a hit with the Aura H2O, and therefore the chances are good that the eBook reader will once again serve as a driving force in the 2015 holiday sales. However, it is conceivable that a new 6-inch device will be launched—with an E-Ink Carta display and at a somewhat lower price than the H2O. Introduction: September

The Aura H2O is one of the most successful new releases of the last year

PocketBook has surprised with its model offensive over the past 18 months. The company has the most comprehensive range of eBook readers and has evolved in Germany from an underdog to a strong competitor. In particular, the offerings from regional branches Mayersche and Osiander have given PocketBook a boost. It’s questionable whether they will continue the model offensive, as the last new releases (Ultra and InkPad) were plagued with issues at their start. The PocketBook Sense will likely be the most important device of the year and will replace the Touch Lux 2. Introductions: March/April-September

The Sense will likely serve as PocketBooks’ flagship in 2015

Smaller providers in the German market, such as Onyx or Icarus, might also come to market with E-Ink Carta devices—with Android on board, as was the case with the last new introductions. However, it would be more important to fix the teething problems of the various Android devices, then they would be perfect Skoobe reading devices.

All in all, the dynamism that emerged in 2014 may slow down a bit this year.